• Rob Spectre
  • 22
  • Oct
  • 08

She could have just as easily been a former wife or estranged daughter for all the chemistry John McCain and Sarah Palin shared in this evening’s interview with Brian Williams.  Neither maverick has ever been difficult to read, but Palin’s body language was even more transparent than usual.  It’s clear that both consider the other an intolerable anchor on political ambition.  Many are wondering perhaps they both think each is preventing the other from reaching the White House.  Republicans on the outside of this election cycle have been spectulating aloud that Sarah Palin represented the future of the GOP.  Now, they are speculating that the governor’s ambitions are more immediate.

It has been subtle, but under the microscopic media attention that accompanies a national election Sarah Palin is distancing herself noticably from several key McCain positions.  Today is perhaps the most obvious of the campaign thus far.  This very morning she spoke with conservative host Dr. James Dobson, agreeing fundamentally with this year’s Republican platform in its entirety.  Her running mate, notably, disagrees on many key planks including gay marriage, stem cell research, and a constiutional amendment banning abortion.  Perhaps Palin is pushing her folksy persuasion on policy areas beyond drilling in ANWAR.

Certainly revealed in her gaffe concerning the constitutional powers of the office of the Vice President is Sarah Palin’s assumption that at the very least she will have a policy portfolio.  She’s operating with the Bush/Cheney example in mind, though clearly misjudging the experience ratio in that relationship to hers with McCain.  Dick Cheney was the wise old man to counter the relative inexperience of a younger upstart at the top of the ticket.  When the situation is reversed so too are the political results.

Perhaps the most damning evidence of the hockey maverick bolting the stable was her ad hoc admission in today’s interview that she would release her medical records.  Overshadowing the news itself was the fact that the McCain campaign knew nothing about it.  Her words in the interview made it seem innocent:

If that will allow some curiosity seekers, perhaps, to have, oh one more thing that they can either check the box off that they can find something to criticize, perhaps, or find something to rest them assured over, fine.

If Sarah Palin released her medical records right now, what would be the ramifications?  The top of her ticket has refused on multiple occasions over the course of the campaign to release fully his own medical records.  Those medical records would no doubt contain private and previously unknown information on the full extent of his four bouts with cancer.  With as much medical history as any 72 year old man would have, forcing McCain to release his records would produce day after day of medical stories, featuring prominently words like “cancer” and “melanoma” and “surgery.”  For as many as three or four days the McCain message would be dwarfed by the din of the press devouring his medical history.  With thirteen days to go and by some measures thirteen points down, it is a neverending news cycle John McCain just cannot afford right now.

So, the question comes back to the running mate with the running mouth.  If the release of medical records would cause such hardship for the campaign, why would she do it?  To assure some “curiosity seekers?”  A presidential candidate refusing to release records after the vice presidential candidate on the same ticket as already agreed to do so is a no-win political predicament.  A four time cancer survivor releasing his medical records less than two weeks before Election Day is a no-win political predicament.

Now either Sarah Palin didn’t know that… or she did.

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Sarah Palin Is Qualified - Rob Spectre, 8 September 2008
Sarah Palin’s Epic Fail: Your (d)N0t Play-by-Play - Rob Spectre, 25 September 2008
Now on MP3, Sarah Palin Is Qualified (TGOWM) - Rob Spectre, 11 September 2008
(d)N0t (d)ebate Watch Tonight – Your Predictions - Rob Spectre, 2 October 2008
Where Did McCain Go Wrong? - Rob Spectre, 28 October 2008
  • If Palin runs for President in 2012, at least she has name recognition going for her... but that may not work in her favor
  • Ron
    Why McCain Will Be Defeated – From New Sarah Palin For Pres in 2012 Website

    Start Today For Real Conservative Victory Within the GOP in 2010/12

    Read the short essay at http://www.palin4pres2012.com

    Thanks,
    Ron
  • You are out of your goddamned mind if you think "real conservative victory" is going to be delivered by Sarah Palin. She won't make it out of the primary in 2012 if she chooses to run.

    Any one in the Republican establishment that isn't upset by her self-preservation antics in the last weeks of the McCain campaign will most certainly be turned off by her incompetence. Winning a Republican primary takes more than telegenics - it takes precinct captains and donation bundlers, direct mail consultants and razor-sharp polling. It requires an infrastructure Sarah Palin wouldn't know how to build from scratch and will be denied to her by folks who already have such completed. No one in the now-limited GOP power brokering business is going to waste his/her only ghost of a chance on the gal who brought McCain down.

    The red carpet that was laid out for the unknown from Alaska may have her and her handlers thinking that this stuff comes easy. 2012 is going to be an election cycle that follows three full years of power vacuum within the Republican Party and will result in a wide primary field. If she thinks the carefully canned exchange with Biden was hard to cram for, she had better buckle up to the dozen debates where she'll be running against eleven better equipped, well funded, and more capable adversaries that would kill her just to watch her die.

    She may run in 2012, but she will not make it to the general. If the conservative base of the GOP wants a win, they need to bet on a faster horse.
  • Fats McGee
    living room closed
  • Dude. I know. I am seriously bummed.

    Feel like I lost a friend.

    Did you get the full story on what happened?
  • the other mike
    Sorry, but I believe Palin's extended fifteen minutes will end on November 4 and with any luck, we'll never hear from her again. I can't see her reappearing in 2012 unless the Republican Party is really in dire straits. With any luck, she'll only be seen in "I'll take Unqualified Hockey Moms for 500, Alex"
    format.
  • I think she would be a flash in the pan in a different environment, but I think she's riding summer surf in winter conditions. The Republican Party *will* be in some very dire straits in 2012, which will leave the field with plenty of room for Sarah's hockey gear. Some reasons I think a Palin comeback is possible:

    1) She is still drawing consistently Bush-sized crowds at all her rallies.

    2) Her internals are low, but still not in Dan Quayle territory - he was discredited with the base, which is not yet true of Palin.

    3) Post-Bush and Post-McCain, the GOP is leaderless. Boehner bucked the rest of the party brass on the bailout and it looks as though McConnell could actually lose. An enormous power vacuum remains. Now, that does not mean Palin is the one who will arrive and fill it, but it does mean that there will be no one with sufficient clout to deny her a run.

    4) Her current gig is safe. Despite Troopergate, Couric and Gibson, and a penchant for expensive threads, Sarah will remain Gov. Palin through 2012.

    So long as she is still in politics and no power center emerges in the party, Palin is going to be in that primary.

    Fortunately for us, even four years of preparation can't fix stupid. She'll get cannibalized by her own kind.
  • Though we're all sick of "Palin screwed the pooch in a big interview" stories, I'm a little upset there wasn't more made of her retarded responses last night.

    "If that will allow some curiosity seekers..."

    Is curiosity something someone can *seek*? What the fuck does that even mean?

    People shouldn't be allowed to do this to language.
  • Hala Furst
    I think Sarah is unwilling to hitch her rising star to a sinking ship. She isn't that stupid, she can read polls as well as the rest of us. The more she establishes herself as an independent Maverick in her own right, the easier it will be for the rest of us to forget she was in fact the final nail in McCain's crazy train coffin. Or so she thinks. But if Sarah Palin is right, and Obama is winning this election (why else would she be feathering her nest in this fashion), in four years the angry right wing will have shrunk, and their wet dream milfy poster girl will be banished to a commentating post at the Fox News Polit Bureau. The sad fact is if Obama wins, in 4 years the Republican's really will need to run a moderate. Like say, McCain, 10 years ago.

    Personally, I think she's just laying the groundwork for that sweet job on Fox News. She's perfect for that. I would even watch her on Fox and Friends. And we know she is watchable from that ill-conceived SNL spot. The fact is, her people are not treating her like a candidate, they are treating her like a prom queen. And that seems to be fine with Sarah Palin.
  • I was thinking that too until yesterday. Leveraging her fifteen minutes into a lucrative broadcasting career - something that proved impossible for her to accomplish on her own merits - would be appropriate. With Fox News serving largely as the retirement home for punted Republican candidates, carefully nodding to the neocon sensibilities of that channel's top brass would be an easy lock on an anchor spot. That, a book every other year, a Lenscrafters sponsorship and swimsuit calendar with Ann Coulter would mean easy street for as many babies as her daughters can squeeze out.

    But her behavior yesterday cemented her intent; she's not sending a shout out to conservative broadcasters, she's courting the conservative base. Now, the *great* news about this is that a Republican minority with a power vacuum on the top is going to be exactly like the Dems in 2004. The Republicans *should* run a moderate against Obama, but who will have the clout to make that happen?

    Their primary is going to be a retard rodeo with 8-12 different candidates in a vicious, knockdown bout for the privilege of getting pounded by a popular incumbent. The budgets are going to be shoestring and the attacks from her opponents are going to make the Couric interviews feel like teeball. John McCain was able to come back for another shot because he is both smart and tough; Palin has maybe only one of those qualities.

    Palin's vice presidential candidacy has been a red carpet that perhaps has never been seen before in American politics. A hostile 2012 primary is going to be nothing like that - she will be eviscerated.

  • Phil M
    Palin is "playing for her own future" per McCain camp advisers.
    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/palin-a-diva-ru.html
  • I've been reading those reports all weekend - sounds like a shitload of tension in the ticket.

    She may be getting advice from some less-than-qualified sources. I found this in a Political Ticker writeup about her stump speech Saturday in Indiana:

    "The Indiana crowd — easily Palin’s largest of the day — was warmed up by country legend Hank Williams, Jr., who often appears at Palin campaign events to perform his recently-penned ode to the GOP ticket: “McCain-Palin tradition.”

    But Williams may have been channeling the enthusiasm of the crowds for Palin — and also reflecting recent reports that Palin is “going rogue” with an eye toward the 2012 presidential race. At one point during his performance, he intentionally scrambled the song’s lyrics and put the Alaskan at the top of the ticket, praising a “Palin-McCain tradition.”

    That musical witticism earned Williams a loud cheer from the crowd."

    When Hank Williams Jr. is serving as your political director, the bar for qualifications is subterranean.
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